Why Did Stripe Really Walk Away?

Hi, and welcome to a new edition of The Daily Dealflow — the 5-minute briefing that gives you clear context on capital flows and market-moving trends across the Americas, from Silicon Valley to Buenos Aires. Let's dive in.

🏆 Deal of the Day

Stripe and Advent International have abandoned their pursuit of PayPal, walking away from a takeover that had climbed as high as $53 billion, sending PayPal shares down as much as 15% to around $52.45 — a market cap of roughly $52.6 billion, almost exactly what the abandoned bid would have valued the company at. Talks broke down over two sticking points: PayPal reportedly wanted well above $70 a share while the buyers' offer topped out near $60.50, and regulators would likely have scrutinized a deal combining two of the world's largest payments networks — the consortium, which Bloomberg first reported had approached PayPal back in February, said the door could still reopen "if circumstances change" – 24/7 Wall St.

Why This?: Had it closed, this would have ranked among the largest fintech M&A deals ever, reshaping payments competition in a market where both companies run deep merchant networks spanning the US and Latin America; its collapse resets expectations for large-cap consolidation in digital payments across the Americas.

Positive Context:

• PayPal's board reportedly rejected the offer as inadequate after Q2 earnings drove the stock up more than 40%, a sign management believes in its standalone turnaround under new CEO Enrique Lores.
• Morningstar analysts noted that results under Lores "have so far been largely positive," and Raymond James flagged PayPal's early push into agentic commerce as "a meaningful opportunity" given its merchant relationships.

Yes, but:

• PayPal's post-collapse market cap landed almost exactly at the abandoned offer price — a sign investors aren't yet convinced management can unlock that value on its own.
• Bernstein analysts said PayPal is unlikely to accept anything "not meaningfully above $70" a share, while it's unclear Stripe and Advent could even afford a price meaningfully above their $60.50 bid — a valuation gap that may be structural, not just timing.

Zoom in: PayPal's stock settled right around the exact market cap the abandoned bid implied, as if traders had already fully priced in a deal that, in the end, never happened.

The comment: "The consortium and PayPal ultimately did not see eye-to-eye on the value of the business... it appears Stripe may have decided the juice wasn't worth the squeeze," said Troy Hooper, co-head of ECM US at Mergermarket, per Reuters.

💰 Venture Capital

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Capital F (US) – $17M, debut fund, investing $250K–$1M checks in startups across women’s health, digital commerce, and AI tools tied to the “female economy.” The firm was founded by Margaret Coblentz, founder of DTC brand Frances Austen, and Dawn Dobras, former CEO of Credo Beauty and former Gap executive. About 80% of its LP base is made up of women, including Jenny Ming, CEO of Rothy’s and former Old Navy leader, and Marta Benson, former CEO of Pottery Barn – The Investor Society.

Bia Energy (Colombia) – $18.5M, growth round, energy-tech platform combining smart metering and consumption analytics for more than 4,000 businesses, now expanding into distributed solar generation and utility billing software. Led by Kaszek with Endeavor Catalyst, EWA Capital, and the Inter-American Development Bank — a sign "boring" energy infrastructure is becoming one of LatAm's hottest VC categories – Dealroom.

Yardstik (US) – $30M, Series B, "workforce trust" platform combining fraud detection, background screening, and continuous post-hire monitoring for HR teams, coming off 149% year-over-year revenue growth. Led by Harbert Growth Partners, bringing total funding to $65M — a bet that hiring fraud, not hiring speed, is the next big HR headache – VC News Daily.

Autonomy (Argentina) – $8M, Series A, rent-to-own vehicle and fintech platform for Uber, DiDi, and Cabify drivers that bundles leasing, insurance, and maintenance, underwriting borrowers on gig-platform earnings instead of credit scores. Founded by José Trusso (ex-Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan) and Leandro Cuccioli, with backing from Magna Capital, Comafi, Natan VC, and Murchison Ventures — the company already fields 3,000 loan applications a month but can only approve half – LatamList.

CivilGrid (US) – $26M, Series A, mapping platform that consolidates underground utility, environmental, and regulatory data so civil engineers and utilities like PG&E stop accidentally digging into the wrong pipe. Founded by Josh Mackanic, a former PG&E engineer, and led by Spark Capital with Energy Impact Partners — essentially "Google Maps for the underground" – Tech Startups.

Pluggy (Brazil) – $3.5M, Series A, Open Finance infrastructure platform authorized by Brazil's Central Bank as a payment-transaction initiator, now connecting nearly 500,000 CNPJs to embed financial data into ERP and accounting software. Led by DGF with Y Combinator and Brazil Venture Capital, bringing total funding to roughly $6M — notably, the company has been profitable since 2024 and expects to top R$25M in 2026 revenue – LatamList.

🏛️ Private Equity

Vanguard (US) / Altruist (US) – $4.6B, all-cash acquisition, of the wealthtech and custody platform for independent financial advisors founded and led by Jason Wenk. Altruist combines self-clearing brokerage with onboarding, trading, portfolio management, billing, and reporting, putting it in direct competition with Schwab and Fidelity for the RIA market. Vanguard, led by Salim Ramji and already an investor since 2020, will pay more than twice Altruist’s $1.9B valuation from its April 2025 funding round; prior backers include Insight Partners, ICONIQ, Venrock, GIC, and Salesforce Ventures – The Investor Society.

Boliden / Nexa Resources (Sweden / Brazil & Peru) – ~$1.31B, controlling-stake acquisition, Swedish miner Boliden agreed to buy Votorantim's 64.68% stake in zinc-and-silver producer Nexa Resources via an all-share exchange implying $15.29 per share — a 14.2% premium to Nexa's 20-day average price — and will follow with a cash tender for the remaining ~35%. CEO Mikael Staffas says the tie-up makes Boliden "one of the leading zinc providers in the world," combining 12 mining units and 8 smelters across two continents – PR Newswire.

Velocity Financial (US) – platform acquisition, the real-estate lender agreed to acquire the operating platform of Toorak Capital, majority-owned by KKR affiliates, while Toorak separately offloads its roughly $3B portfolio of business-purpose loans — effectively splitting one lender into "the machine" and "the loan book" and selling each to a different buyer – RTTNews.

RQD* Clearing (US) – $74M, minority growth-equity investment, led by Bain Capital Tech Opportunities, with participation from ABN AMRO Clearing Bank, Nyca Partners, and existing investors Gentree Fund and Belvedere Strategic Capital. Led by Michael Sanocki, RQD* provides cloud-native clearing and custody for broker-dealers, RIAs, and foreign financial institutions accessing U.S. markets – The Investor Society.

📈 Public & Capital Markets

Uber (US) / Delivery Hero (Germany) – $14.8B, cash tender offer acquisition, through which Uber is seeking to buy Delivery Hero at approximately $47 per share, representing a 127% premium to the three-month average share price before the announcement. If completed, Uber and Delivery Hero would combine for $236B in pro forma gross bookings and operations across 99 markets: food-delivery consolidation at “super app” scale, still subject to several antitrust checkpoints – The Investor Society.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh (US) – Jackson Hole speech, in his first address as Fed Chair, Warsh said summer inflation readings "do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved," pushing market odds of a September rate hike from roughly 35% to 55% overnight — a notably hawkish debut for a central banker Wall Street had hoped would lean dovish – CNBC.

ETFs (US) – 217 ETF closures in 2026 through mid-August, compared with 119 over the same period in 2025—nearly twice the pace of liquidations. This is a notable public-markets signal: more than 85% of ETFs closed since 2021 had less than $50M in AUM, while leveraged and inverse products have been particularly exposed, with 73 closures as of July. The less glamorous lesson behind the ticker: before buying a fashionable theme, check AUM, flows, spread, age, strategy, and the issuer’s track record – The Investor Society.

Nvidia (US, Nasdaq: NVDA) – post-earnings pullback, shares fell 4.57% to $217.55, giving back part of Thursday's ~9% pop that followed a blowout Q2 (EPS $2.22 vs. $2.09 expected; $96.22B revenue) — proof that even a record quarter isn't always enough to hold a rally at a $5+ trillion valuation – Yahoo Finance.

Ibovespa (Brazil) – benchmark equity index move, Brazil's main index extended its winning streak toward 175,135 points (+0.31%), with Petrobras among the leaders even as traders weighed gross public debt sitting at 81.9% of GDP – The Rio Times.

📅 Americas Agenda

A curated snapshot of the most relevant events across the Americas, from Silicon Valley to Buenos Aires. Track where business owners, investors, and operators gather each week to exchange insights and build meaningful relationships.

Sep 15, 2026 — Long Beach / El Segundo, CA
Physical AI Pitch Night @ Beckhoff (part of SoCal Deep Tech Week 2026). LA Hardware Meetup hosts four hardware startups pitching live to a VC panel (Calibrate Ventures, Physical Fund, Tola Capital) at Beckhoff Automation — Luma.

Sep 17, 2026 — San Francisco, CA
Why Are We So Bad at Being Happy? The Psychology of Happiness, Swedish American Hall. UC Berkeley psychologist Iris Mauss examines why happiness-seeking backfires and evidence-based approaches for improving wellbeing through research insights and audience discussion — Luma.

Sep 17, 2026 — Alameda, CA
East Bay Neurotech Happy Hour. An informal gathering for neurotechnology professionals and enthusiasts in Alameda, with drinks, food, and conversations designed to connect people across the local ecosystem — Luma.

Sep 24, 2026 — San Francisco, CA
GenMedia Conference 2026 Registration, venue disclosed upon approved registration. fal convenes founders, executives, researchers, and creators exploring generative media applications, frontier models, infrastructure, and AI-native workflows across industries — Luma.

Nov 5–6, 2026 — Queens, NY
The Outliers Summit. A two-day founder/operator gathering hosted by Ankur Nagpal and Andrew Yeung in partnership with AngelList — Day 1 tactical build sessions, Day 2 investor and founder mindset talks — Luma.

See you tomorrow,

Jose Kont
The human behind The Investor Society.